Tag Archives: USD Index

USD Rises Following Biden’s New Infrastructure Plan

With the new infrastructure plan coming, the US dollar breaks through this year’s new high. Biden to expose $2 trillion, 8-year infrastructure plan

  Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Quarles said on Tuesday that a group of financial regulators would make recommendations in July to increase the resilience of money market funds and reduce the probability of receiving government aid in the future. The group will focus on money market funds and short-term funds—the relationship between markets. Besides, he also stated that investors should believe the Fed’s statement on the current inflation target, allowing inflation to be slightly higher than 2%.

  The IMF will release its global economic outlook report next Tuesday, which will raise its global GDP forecasts for this year and next. In January, it was expected to grow by 5.5% and 4.2%, respectively. The IMF warned that the outlook for the epidemic is uncertain. A small number of countries headed by China and the United States can exceed the GDP by the end of this year, while other countries’ recovery is “dangerously divided.” After the US fiscal stimulus, inflation may reach 2.5%, “but that is not a concern.”

  Some representatives of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said that after Saudi Arabia expressed that the figure was too high, the OPEC+ technical expert group agreed to lower the oil demand forecast for 2021. They also stated that OPEC+ will still avoid a substantial increase in crude oil production when it meets on April 1.

  According to satellite news, the Saudi side has promised to continue to reduce production voluntarily. The Saudi side has contacted some OPEC countries, most of which hope to extend the (production reduction) agreement to May. However, the Kremlin stated that Russian President Putin currently has no plans to hold talks with Saudi Arabia on OPEC+. OPEC data shows that if the production cut is extended, the inventory in May will be reduced by 2.9 million barrels per day. OPEC expects that the oil reserve surplus will be exhausted before the end of the second quarter. The oil inventory surplus will fall to 3 million barrels at the end of the second quarter.

  The White House will probably announce a $ 2.25 trillion infrastructure investment plan on Wednesday; The Washington Post, citing two people familiar with the matter, reported that Biden would announce a $2.25 trillion infrastructure and employment support package Pittsburgh on Wednesday. The package includes approximately US$650 billion to rebuild roads, bridges, highways and ports, about US$400 billion to care for the elderly and the disabled, US$300 billion to housing infrastructure, and US$300 billion to revitalise the manufacturing Industry. In addition to the $2.25 trillion plan, the White House will also launch an approximately $400 billion clean energy loan program. Other investments include hundreds of billions of dollars for power grids, national high-speed broadband and clean drinking water. The White House will issue a second set of drafts within a few weeks, including the expansion of medical insurance and child tax deductions. The combined size of all bills may exceed 4 trillion U.S. dollars.

  Yumi Shinohara, deputy manager of the fleet management department of Zhengrong Steamship, the owner of the container ship “Nagachi”, said that the company had not received any claims or litigation regarding the blockage of the Suez Canal.

  Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds gave up most of their gains after hitting a 14-month high. The Dow fell more than a hundred points, the pan-European stock index approached its historical high set 13 months ago, and German stocks reached a new high. The U.S. dollar hit a new high in more than four months, and Bitcoin rose above 59,000 U.S. dollars in intraday trading, setting a new high in more than a week. Gold fell below US$1,700 and approached an 11-month low, silver hit a three-month low, London copper hit a new low for more than five weeks, and crude oil ended two consecutive rises and fell to more than one-week highs.

 

Considering the previous trends, where will the dollar go next?

School establishment:
   It’s the start of a new trading day. The school uses the US dollar index as the core of its predictions on international currency markets.

According to today’s disk, the performance of the US dollar index is somewhat surprising. The disk has fallen beneath the neckline of the “head and shoulders pattern” on the previous day. This technical pattern often indicates uncertainty in the markets as the longs and shorts squabble back and forth, unsure how to go.

Thinking more deeply, the market confirms that the cross star appears immediately after the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern breaks. This can only show one problem. The gap is not strong and may not have a big impact on the market. This makes the school stand. Suddenly remembered the previous performance when the market broke through the neckline of the “head and shoulders bottom pattern”, it was exactly the same, because at that time, after the market effectively broke through the head and shoulders bottom pattern, the cross star line also appeared on the second day, and now it is also out of the same situation. Will this be a remake? I believe only time can tell.

I have to say that the current US dollar is really stuck, the market has not started an effective market, and even has a trend of failure to break through, and now the US dollar has suddenly reproduced the previous scene, which makes people speechless, and believes that the market will not be too big. Quotes are given. After all, the US dollar is still dormant. It is also difficult to give a larger quote at this time.

   How to predict the next step of the dollar index? The school believes that it may be similar to the trend when the previous breakthrough occurred. In other words, the US dollar index may see some declines today, and it is also possible to produce a new breakthrough downward, but it may be temporarily for a sharp decline. No, after all, the larger pattern of the US dollar still needs to be bullish rather than bearish. The current situation is just a short-term game. It can also be seen as sweeping fluctuations in a range of shocks, since the market has been re-enacted. Part of the previous trend, then it is not impossible to continue to reproduce the follow-up trend. Because this market is a “everything is possible” market.

At the operational level, it is still based on short-term thinking, looking for opportunities to overestimate or underestimate the scum; adopt different coping strategies for different varieties, try to choose valuable points to enter the market, remember to bring a stop loss just in case, after all, the current There are still many crises in the market, and only care can make the Wannian Ship!

   EUR/USD:

  Combined with the above analysis, today Europe and the United States can actually overestimate the low scum, but combined with the market analysis, it is more appropriate to deploy a short-selling strategy on rallies today. Give the following suggestions and refer to the operation as appropriate. Weak position:

   Short selling in the 1.2180-1.2190 range, stop loss 20 points, target 1.2160, 1.2140, 1.2120.

EUR/USD

  USD/JPY:

  The second operation currency pair today, continue to choose the US and Japan. Because currently only the United States and Japan can still have the opportunity to deploy, other direct currencies have excessive behavior, but they are dangerous. Combining the board to give the following suggestions, refer to the operation as appropriate, and wet warehouse:

  Buy in the 105.15-105.25 interval, stop loss 20 points, target 105.45, 105.65, 105.85.

USD/JPY

  Gold:

   Gold is in a state of shock; gold’s liquidity has become worse and worse, meaning less and less volatility. However, the price of gold will still fluctuate. After all, gold is still the largest trading product today.

From an operational perspective, today’s gold can have opportunities for overestimation and low slag, which are around 1818 and 1796, respectively. However, considering the current potential risks in the market, we can only consider low-to-multiple suggestions today, and the market will do whatever the opportunity is. Wait and see without giving a chance, Wessang:

  Buy in the range of 1795-1796, stop loss 3 dollars, target 1799, 1803, 1808.