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Gold Markets market analysis, news, and updates.

Bitcoin is frozen, whilst Gold expected to rise.

Bitcoin is frozen, whilst Gold expected to rise. Can it reach 10,000 US dollars in extreme cases?

May 27 – Huitong.com According to Scott Minerd, chief information officer at Guggenheim, as cryptocurrency prices fell and investors returned to gold and silver, the final gold price target was set at the US $5,000 to the US $10,000. Minerd also forecasts a 10% correction in US stocks over the next six months but added that the S&P 500 index would eventually reach 5000 points, if not higher.

On May 26, Guggenheim Chief Information Officer Scott Minerd stated that as cryptocurrency prices fell and investors returned to gold and silver, precious metals would gain momentum, with the final gold price target set at the US $5,000 to $10,000.

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“As funds exit the cryptocurrency market, people will continue to seek inflation-hedging instruments, and gold and silver will be better choices,” Minerd said in an interview.

According to Minerd, this will take time due to the size of the gold market, but the precious metals will enter an “exponential rise.”

He added that the ultimate goal for gold is a price of between US $5,000 and $10,000 per ounce.

Silver’s price typically lags. This is the poor man’s gold. It may also surpass gold as the most valuable precious metal. It is a version of gold with a high beta.

When discussing the future of cryptocurrencies, Minerd stated that while he believes Bitcoin and Ethereum will endure, new cryptocurrencies will likely dominate the digital asset space.

Additionally, he stated, “We will discover that some new cryptocurrencies will emerge for an extended period.” It can resolve several of the issues we are currently facing, including mining costs and total carbon production. It will develop into a high-level cryptocurrency and eventually become the dominant one.”

Minerd also forecasts a 10% correction in US stocks but predicted that the S & P 500 index would eventually recover.

“I believe the US stock market will experience a correction,” he stated. I believe that the US stock market will experience a 10% correction over the next six months. However, I think the S & P 500 will eventually surpass 5000 points. It could even be more extraordinary.

At 8:44 a.m. Beijing time on May 27, spot gold was quoted at $1,894.59 per ounce.

Gold Broken Position 1719 Continues Downward 3.30

Gold Market Trend Analysis
  Gold finally broke down after continuous shocks, and it broke the resistance point after falling below the 1719 position, ending the shocking situation and starting a downward trend! 1719 did not break or stand, break the position and turn down. I have repeatedly emphasised the importance of this position. The so-called horizontal is how long and how high is vertical. Gold maintains volatility for more than two weeks. Once broken, it is a waterfall-like trend. Break the position to continue the falling market, follow the trend decisively!

  Previously, gold remained within the range of shocks, long and short, but since yesterday’s break of 1719, the market trend has changed, and you shouldn’t use old strategies to treat the current new trend. It is necessary to adjust the thinking in time and follow the trend! Today is a broken position and chooses to fall, rebound and take advantage of the trend, and the subsequent support position is the 1690 line!

  Gold, which has been volatile for many days, broke out of the US market yesterday. The long-awaited trend signal has appeared. The daily line closed overcast and fell below the support of 1719 in the daily bar. The daily 5-day moving average and 10-day moving average continued to increase in volume. Gold enters a downward mode, so next week, gold will focus on 1719 and 1725 suppression, focusing on the daily mid-track 1725 as the suppression and taking advantage of the trend to fall back. The lower target is 1700/1690.

  In today’s operation, we still focus on the high-altitude rebound. Today, gold focuses on the 1719 suppression position. After the previous support broke, the precious metal formed a resistance. Besides, the resistance position of the first rebound after yesterday’s sharp drop is also below this. The daytime relying on 1719 to suppress the rebound continues. Short, there is still a certain amount of support at the 1700 integer mark. It was also the last time that the callback was supported. However, the short-term support is challenging to change the impact of the short-term decline. It is expected that the short-term adjustment will continue to fall! Empty, the rebound below 1719 continues to be open!

  European operation idea: gold near 1715 is negative, stop loss is 1720, the target is near 1700; if the rebound is unable to continue under pressure, stop loss is at 1715, and the position is directly negative near 1708, the target is broken at 1700, and the broken 1700 rebounds by 3 dollars to continue With nothing!

Considering the previous trends, where will the dollar go next?

School establishment:
   It’s the start of a new trading day. The school uses the US dollar index as the core of its predictions on international currency markets.

According to today’s disk, the performance of the US dollar index is somewhat surprising. The disk has fallen beneath the neckline of the “head and shoulders pattern” on the previous day. This technical pattern often indicates uncertainty in the markets as the longs and shorts squabble back and forth, unsure how to go.

Thinking more deeply, the market confirms that the cross star appears immediately after the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern breaks. This can only show one problem. The gap is not strong and may not have a big impact on the market. This makes the school stand. Suddenly remembered the previous performance when the market broke through the neckline of the “head and shoulders bottom pattern”, it was exactly the same, because at that time, after the market effectively broke through the head and shoulders bottom pattern, the cross star line also appeared on the second day, and now it is also out of the same situation. Will this be a remake? I believe only time can tell.

I have to say that the current US dollar is really stuck, the market has not started an effective market, and even has a trend of failure to break through, and now the US dollar has suddenly reproduced the previous scene, which makes people speechless, and believes that the market will not be too big. Quotes are given. After all, the US dollar is still dormant. It is also difficult to give a larger quote at this time.

   How to predict the next step of the dollar index? The school believes that it may be similar to the trend when the previous breakthrough occurred. In other words, the US dollar index may see some declines today, and it is also possible to produce a new breakthrough downward, but it may be temporarily for a sharp decline. No, after all, the larger pattern of the US dollar still needs to be bullish rather than bearish. The current situation is just a short-term game. It can also be seen as sweeping fluctuations in a range of shocks, since the market has been re-enacted. Part of the previous trend, then it is not impossible to continue to reproduce the follow-up trend. Because this market is a “everything is possible” market.

At the operational level, it is still based on short-term thinking, looking for opportunities to overestimate or underestimate the scum; adopt different coping strategies for different varieties, try to choose valuable points to enter the market, remember to bring a stop loss just in case, after all, the current There are still many crises in the market, and only care can make the Wannian Ship!

   EUR/USD:

  Combined with the above analysis, today Europe and the United States can actually overestimate the low scum, but combined with the market analysis, it is more appropriate to deploy a short-selling strategy on rallies today. Give the following suggestions and refer to the operation as appropriate. Weak position:

   Short selling in the 1.2180-1.2190 range, stop loss 20 points, target 1.2160, 1.2140, 1.2120.

EUR/USD

  USD/JPY:

  The second operation currency pair today, continue to choose the US and Japan. Because currently only the United States and Japan can still have the opportunity to deploy, other direct currencies have excessive behavior, but they are dangerous. Combining the board to give the following suggestions, refer to the operation as appropriate, and wet warehouse:

  Buy in the 105.15-105.25 interval, stop loss 20 points, target 105.45, 105.65, 105.85.

USD/JPY

  Gold:

   Gold is in a state of shock; gold’s liquidity has become worse and worse, meaning less and less volatility. However, the price of gold will still fluctuate. After all, gold is still the largest trading product today.

From an operational perspective, today’s gold can have opportunities for overestimation and low slag, which are around 1818 and 1796, respectively. However, considering the current potential risks in the market, we can only consider low-to-multiple suggestions today, and the market will do whatever the opportunity is. Wait and see without giving a chance, Wessang:

  Buy in the range of 1795-1796, stop loss 3 dollars, target 1799, 1803, 1808.

February 18 Financial breakfest

On Wednesday (February 17), the US dollar index hit a new high since February 8 to 91.05. Optimistic economic data and signs of rising inflation helped push the dollar higher. Spot gold fell for five consecutive days, refreshing its lowest point since November 30 last year to US$1,769.65 per ounce. The strengthening of the US dollar and better-than-expected US economic data reduced gold’s attractiveness as a haven. Oil prices rose by more than 2%, and U.S. oil and Bursa oil hit their highest points since January last year to 61.73 US dollars/barrel and 64.96 US dollars/barrel respectively. The severe cold weather caused US oil production to plunge by a record 40%.

Commodity closing, COMEX April gold futures closed down 1.5%, at 1,772.80 US dollars per ounce. WTI March crude oil futures closed up 1.09 US dollars, or 1.81%, to 61.14 US dollars per barrel; Brent April crude oil futures closed up 0.99 US dollars, or 1.56%, to 64.34 US dollars per barrel.

The three major US stock indexes closed mixed. The Dow Jones index closed up 90.30 points, or 0.29%, to 3,161,302 points; the S&P 500 index closed down 1.30 points, or 0.03%, to 3,931.32 points; the Nasdaq index closed down 82.00 points, a decrease of 0.58%, to 13,965.49 points.

Thursday preview

Time Area Index Previous value Predicted value
08:30 Australia January seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (%) 6.6 6.5
08:30 Australia January employment-population change (10,000 people) 5 3
18:00 Eurozone January unseasonally adjusted CPI annual rate final value (%) 0.9

18:00 The final value of the core CPI annual rate in the Eurozone without seasonal adjustment in January (%) 1.4 0.9
21:30 U.S. January construction permit monthly rate (%) 4.5 -1.6
21:30 U.S. Total number of construction permits in January (10,000 households) 170.9 167.7
21:30 U.S. January import price index monthly rate (%) 0.9 1
21:30 United States January import price index annual rate (%) -0.3 0.4
21:30 United States January annualised monthly rate of housing starts (%) 5.8 -0.7
21:30 U.S. Annualised total number of housing starts in January (10,000 households) 166.9 165.8
21:30 United States As of February 13, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits (10,000) 79.3 77.3
21:30 United States As of February 6th, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits (10,000) 454.5 442.3
23:00 Eurozone February Consumer Confidence Index Initial Value -15.5 -15
00:00 AM U.S. EIA crude oil inventory changes in the week ending February 12 (10,000 barrels) -664.5

00:00 AM U.S. EIA refined oil inventory changes in the week ending February 12 (10,000 barrels) -173.2

00:00 in the morning U.S. EIA gasoline inventory changes in the week ending February 12 (10,000 barrels) 425.9

07:05 Dallas Fed President Kaplan participated in an online dialogue event hosted by the Dallas Fed to discuss the US and global economic issues

20:30 ECB announces minutes of a monetary policy meeting

21:00 Federal Reserve Governor Brainard delivers a speech

23:00 2021 FOMC voting committee and Atlanta Fed President Bostic delivers a speech

List of major global markets

The three major U.S. stock indexes” the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high, the S&P 500 closed flat, while the Nasdaq Composite Index fell; U.S. bond yields fell from a one-year high, investors weighed Economic growth and inflation outlook.

State Street Global Investment Management US SPDR ETF chief investment officer Michael Arone said that those companies whose earnings are vulnerable to inflation and cannot support their current high valuations are under selling pressure, including technology stocks. At some point, rising yields may Bringing shock, but I don’t think it’s there yet.

Precious metals and crude oil

Gold futures prices closed down for the fourth consecutive trading day, closing at the lowest level since June 2020. According to Dow Jones market data, the most active gold futures contract appeared on Wednesday for the first time since June 2018, 50%. The daily moving average crosses the 200-day moving average, indicating that the long-term price trend may be down in the future. Analysts said that rising U.S. Treasury yields are usually conducive to the rise of the dollar, both of which are bad for gold prices.

Oil prices rose by more than 2%, and U.S. oil and Bursa oil hit their highest points since January last year to 61.73 US dollars/barrel and 64.96 US dollars/barrel respectively. The severe cold weather in Texas, the largest oil-producing state in the United States, led to the suspension of oil fields in the state and abnormally cold weather. It is expected to drag down crude oil production in the next few days or even weeks.

Oil prices supported by factors such as OPEC+ supply restrictions, additional cuts in Saudi production, and hopes that new crown vaccination will lead to a rebound in demand. The historic cold weather in Texas since last weekend has further pushed up oil prices. Most of the crude oil supply in the United States comes from Texas, which is part of the major refining centres in the United States.

Due to unprecedented cold weather freezing oil well operations in the United States’ central region, the United States’ daily oil production has fallen by more than 4 million barrels. Refinery shutdowns triggered by severe cold weather have reduced U.S. crude oil demand. According to Bob Yawger, head of energy futures at Mizuho in New York, this brings us to a higher level. The price of US crude oil may reach its peak near US$65.65.

The rising prices environment has made people more concerned about OPEC+, and the alliance will meet on March 4 to formulate policies. OPEC+ sources said that given the rebound in oil prices, the alliance’s oil-producing countries might relax supply restrictions after April.

Foreign exchange

The dollar rose on Wednesday, hitting a new high since February 8 to 91.05. Optimistic economic data and signs of increasing inflation helped push the dollar higher against a basket of currencies. The dollar index rose from the three-week low touched last Friday, rising 0.40% to 90.94 in late trading. The US retail sales, industrial production and producer price index (PPI) data released on Wednesday exceeded expectations. This shows that as vaccination progresses, the momentum for the economy to recover from the pandemic-induced recession is increasing.

Marc Chandler, the chief market strategist at Bannockburn Forex, said that today’s retail sales data is not only stronger than expected but far exceeding expectations. The same is valid for industrial production data. The dollar trend started yesterday, and what we see today is a continuation. Many people are still bearish on the dollar, but there is more room for this upward trend.

The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting on January 26-27. Participants stated that they need to “be vigilant” in the light of the recent economic rebound. They also discussed the expected rise in inflation and reiterated easing policies to support the ailing job market. Nothing is surprising about the meeting minutes.

Chandler said that in general, there is not much new information in the minutes of the Fed’s meeting, and the market is looking forward to the testimony of Fed Chairman Powell next week.

Despite the optimistic economic report, US Treasury yields reversed the recent upward momentum due to weakening selling pressure. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell back to 1.270% at the end of the session and was as high as 1.331% earlier in the session.

The euro fell 0.56% against the US dollar to 1.2038. The pound fell 0.33% against the dollar to 1.3857, after hitting its highest level since April 2018 on Tuesday.

During the Asian trading hours, the dollar-yen, which is sensitive to US yields, rose to 106.22, the highest since September last year, and fell back to 105.87 in late trading, down 0.16%.

In other currency pairs, the Australian dollar fell 0.09% to the US dollar to 0.7751; the New Zealand dollar fell 0.33% to 0.7191 against the US dollar; the US dollar rose 0.72% to the Swiss franc to 0.8989; the US dollar rose 0.09% to the Canadian dollar to 1.2702.

International news

[Minutes of the Federal Reserve Meeting: The conditions for reducing the intensity of QE cannot be met for “a time”] The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the January FOMC monetary policy meeting, stating that it may take some time for the US economy to make substantial progress. I am afraid that the conditions for reducing the intensity of asset purchases (QE) will not be met “for a while”. He is optimistic about inflation, but he is cautious about the labour market. Before adjusting the speed of asset purchases, it is essential to communicate with the public. The degree of improvement in the medium-term outlook has been sufficient for the Fed to adjust its views in its interest rate resolution statement.

[API report: U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 5.8 million barrels to 468 million barrels last week] As of the week of February 12, API gasoline inventories increased by 3.9 million barrels, refined oil inventories decreased by 3.5 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 3 million Barrels; US crude oil imports increased by 26,000 barrels per day last week.

[It is reported that crude oil production in the Permian Basin in the United States was frozen due to severe cold weather. Crude oil production in the Permian Basin fell by 80%, and US crude oil production fell by more than 40% or 4 million barrels per day.]

[Fed Rosengren: It is expected that inflation data will improve overtime this year. If inflation becomes a problem, the Fed will fix it. It is estimated that inflation cannot be maintained at around 2% in the next one or two years. There is indeed a “bubble” in some parts of the market, but people are less concerned about financial stability before the economy is close to full employment]

Ramsden said that the central bank has further room to expand its bond purchase program to stimulate the economy. This statement may indicate that prominent bank officials may be unwilling to Lower interest rates below zero. Ramsden said that the Bank of England might reassess some restrictions on the bank’s purchase of British government bonds in the financial market. He said that although the central bank does not rule out negative interest rates, quantitative easing is a “tested tool.” These remarks show that although the Bank of England expects that the new crown vaccine’s promotion can lead to a robust economic recovery, the central bank does not rule out the possibility of increasing stimulus measures.

Texas bans many natural gas companies from sending energy outside the state. Texas will extend its ban on foreign natural gas sales until February 21. Texas still has 19,800 megawatts (MW) of natural gas power capacity offline, and 17,200 MW of wind/solar (000591, share bar) power capacity is still offline.

[US SEC considers increasing short-sale transparency] The Wall Street Journal (blog, Weibo) quoted a source saying that the US Securities Exchange is considering whether to increase the transparency of short-sales and private lending to the soaring share price of Game Post. Eleven years ago, the authorities asked the SEC to implement such rules, but they never realised it. Now, in response to the stock trading frenzy caused by the game station incident, the US Securities and Exchange Commission is considering increasing the transparency of short-selling transactions within its scope of authority.

Domestic news

[Securities Daily front page: Five reasons for institutions to sing more A shares, the first week of the ox year may welcome a “good start” market] The industry generally believes that compared with the past Spring Festival market, the probability of the stock market rising after the holiday this year is higher. Most institutions said that the five reasons might help A shares usher in the first week of “good start.” First of all, the market has a higher probability of rising after the holiday. Secondly, the surrounding markets continue to “rising”. During the Chinese New Year holiday, the A-share market was boosted by economic recovery expectations, and “rising” became the keynote of major global markets. Third, commodity prices have hit new highs. Fourth, the RMB exchange rate’s appreciation has made RMB assets increasingly attractive to international capital, and foreign investors favour shares. Fifth, market funds are abundant. The inflexion point of liquidity tightening that some market participants worry about has not appeared. Industry insiders believe that, in the context of the upcoming launch of larger-scale economic stimulus plans in Europe and the United States, my country does not have the basis for immediate tightening of liquidity.

gold prices have seen profit-taking before the key technical level of $1850

The price of gold decreased on Friday when investors took profits after the previous trading day’s rally. However, Speculations on new US stimulus measures made gold more attractive as an inflation hedge, and the price of gold rose for the first time in four weeks.e

  At the time closing of the US market, spot gold closed at US$1838.51 per ounce, down US$1.99 or 0.09%. The highest intraday hit US$1848.09 per ounce and the lowest hit US$1830.09 per ounce.

Gold prices have seen profit-taking after four consecutive days of a strong rebound. This level is seen as a major obstacle because it has been a support level for the past two months: Montreal Said Tai Wong, director of bank fundamentals and precious metal derivatives trading.

  ”Gold’s response to the apparently weak U.S. non-farm payroll report is a sell-off rather than a rise, suggesting that bargain-hunting buyers may be temporarily satisfied,” he added, adding that there may be some mild but stable “planned sell-offs in ETF “.
The November non-agricultural employment growth in the United States was the lowest in six months, which is likely to boost expectations of fiscal stimulus. After the release of non-agricultural data, gold rose to a high, but then fell in shock.

  The latest U.S. non-agricultural employment report shows that the U.S. non-agricultural employment-population increased by only 245,000 in November, far below the expected increase of 469,000; the unemployment rate in November fell to 6.7%, the expected 6.8%, and the previous value of 6.9%.