Category Archives: Forex

GBP/USD is Pushing Towards The 1.4000 mark

The British pound is trading slightly above the 1.3360 level, but not by much as it moves towards its next significant resistance at the 1.4000 mark. One can expect another wave up to test this zone once again before going back below targeting even lower supports around here.
The GBP/USD pair has been consistently consolidating since January when the Bank Of England cut interest rates for the first time after seven years which sent markets into chaos and made investors question whether we will ever see any economic recovery finally happening outside the UK economy. It seems like last week’s events haven’t changed anything significantly. Lately, there have only been sideways trends following each other without giving room enough space so far until our eyes get used to seeing those patterns over-and.

The depreciation of the U.S. dollar, the future trend is unpredictable

This week the foreign exchange market, the dollar depreciation of the main events, a week quotes 93.9480 to 93.6180 point downstream point, the depreciation of 0.35%; 94.1785-93.4950 point amplitude between the highest and the lowest was 0.72%. As a result, other major currency followers have their characteristics. Among them, the appreciation of the pound sterling has helped the U.S. dollar significantly, and the exchange rate range has risen to 1.38 US dollars. The appreciation of the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar have strong coordination, with the Australian dollar reaching US$0.74 and the New Zealand dollar to US$0.72. Over the weekend, the yen only appreciated 113 yen, while the Canadian dollar remained high at 1.23 Canadian dollars. Only the euro remained stable at 1.16 US dollars, and the Swiss franc remained stable at 0.91 Swiss francs. Our RMB sudden appreciation and then topped 6,400 yuan mark, the two comparable level, opening the shore in partial derogatory 6.43 yuan, offshore partial rose 6.42 yuan but closed both 6.38 yuan, 6.3850 onshore partial banished from slightly below The shore is 6.3820 yuan.

The U.S. dollar dominates the current foreign exchange market. After all, the economic and policy influence of the U.S. dollar is more potent than that of all currencies, and the will of the U.S. dollar in the exchange rate game is still at the mercy of the market logic and guidance. The prospects deviate from the economy or are highly speculative or anxious—leading to cause and background.

1. The expected advancement of U.S. monetary policy is the focus of operational parameters. One week the Fed several officials of speech, including Bao Weier speech the President of the economy certainly favor or outbreaks soothing rhetoric and policy loosening is evident, then the market is expected to raise interest rates ahead of time is the key, actual debt reduction or step by step forward, then U.S. Treasury yields up protrude. Among them, the 10-year Treasury bond yield has risen to 1.7%, indicating that the Fed’s actions are intensive and the layout observation is positive. At this time, the devaluation of the U.S. dollar is the key. After all, it is the key to stabilizing the economy with interest rate hike expectations, and the devaluation of the U.S. dollar is significant to protect the economy. The old way of the U.S. dollar currency has always been concerned about and adjusted to the economy. Being proactive is the key to the current U.S. economic timeliness. Therefore, the Fed’s monetary policy is the key to benchmarking the economy, and it is also the focus of the actual results of actual measures. The primary and secondary logic of currency and economy is that currency protects the economy and is the focus of attention. Since President Biden came to power, he has always focused on the concerns and facts of the domestic economy. The U.S. economy has been prosperous so far. It is the market focus that has the background and the support of factors.

2. The actual profit and performance of the enterprise highlight the functional effect. The focus of the market this week is the financial reports of listed companies in the United States. The final result is that companies’ financial reports are positive or their earnings are more prominent than expected. At present, 84% of the financial reports that the market has seen are profits or exceed-expected profits, and even corporate profits have generally increased by 33.7%. As a result, U.S. stocks have soared. The Dow broke a record high of 35,765.02 points, and the S&P recorded a high of 4551.44 points. The three major stock indexes rose by 1.08, 1.29%, and 1.64% in the week, and even the aviation sector is a surprising profit model. The logic of listed companies in the United States is apparent. On the one hand, the government policies for corporate rescue are appropriate. The Federal Reserve’s debt purchases are to help companies have sufficient liquidity. Even if inflation is coming, corporate capital flow and cash flow smoothly support economic cycles or development needs, so the United States The profitability of the company remains undiminished. On the other hand, the U.S. employment index is unsuitable for applying for unemployment benefits or non-agricultural purposes. However, the unemployment rate in the United States has dropped significantly. The increase in the rate is related to the stability and quality of labor. This is a severe problem deliberately ignored by American public opinion and an essential basis for the dollar’s depreciation. However, the U.S. economy is not at the level of polarization of public opinion. The overall economy and the logic of reality require careful observation and comparison.

3. The multi-angle combination of complex factors in the international environment is prominent. The current market highlights the upward trend of international oil prices. New York oil futures prices have risen for nine consecutive weeks. This is the most extended weekly rise since April 1983, and this is also why the depreciation of the U.S. dollar is justified. After all, the financialization of oil has been integrated into the critical position of the U.S. dollar framework, and the controllability of U.S. oil has been quite beneficial. The rising oil will be the focus and combined support of many issues around the world. The current stimulus of rising oil is unavoidable, and the two significant areas of production and consumption with industrial characteristics will be unavoidable. Coupled with the more geopolitical nature of oil, poor international relations are inevitable for oil stimulus. It is also an important new element and new framework focus of U.S. foreign relations. In particular, the U.S. government announced on the weekend that the U.S. fiscal year deficit for 2021 was the second-highest in history. It was 2.77 trillion U.S. dollars, less than 3.13 trillion U.S. dollars in the previous year. The contradiction problem of the United States shows the power and credibility of the U.S. dollar and indicates the risks and pressures of the U.S. dollar. The two-sided logic is appropriately used by the skilled U.S. dollar and can be used with ease.

It is expected that the depreciation of the U.S. dollar next week will be the fermentation of concerns about the size of the U.S. fiscal deficit. Still, it is expected that the exchange rate will be challenging to implement, and the actual U.S. dollar may have to appreciate due to the depreciation of the significant basket currencies. After all, the appreciation of major currencies in the main basket increases economic and policy risks. Repairing the market will certainly not be conducive to the depreciation of the U.S. dollar. However, commodity resource prices may rise. The U.S. dollar has more than a handful of hands. The U.S. dollar’s ​​incredible combination of technologies, strategies, and policies requires comprehensive observation and response.

(Editor in charge: Wang Zhiqiang HF013)

 

Bitcoin hits a new all-time high after six months.

 Bitcoin hits a new all-time high after six months.

  Bitcoin since April this year, the first time exceeded the $ 600 million mark because there is growing optimism that US regulators will approve only for this first US encryption currency futures exchange-traded funds. According to Bloomberg data, the digital currency rose by more than 40% month-on-month, reaching $62,553 at 20:50 on the 15th GMT. Bloomberg reported that the US Securities and Exchange Commission might allow this ETF to be traded next week. Since 2013, the US Securities and Exchange Commission has rejected attempts to create a Bitcoin ETF.
Edward Moya, a senior market analyst, said: “The approval of the Bitcoin ETF by the US Securities and Exchange Commission will be a major moment for the cryptocurrency industry, as it may be a key driving force to attract the next wave; of cryptocurrency investors.”
XTB online trading analyst Walid Kudmani said: “This is a key development in the field of cryptocurrency because it will allow many investors who are on the sidelines to enter the market more traditionally.” Other countries also have. Some ETFs include Bitcoin, but Bitcoin ETFs in the United States will take cryptocurrency to another level. (Interface News)

Bitcoin is frozen, whilst Gold expected to rise.

Bitcoin is frozen, whilst Gold expected to rise. Can it reach 10,000 US dollars in extreme cases?

May 27 – Huitong.com According to Scott Minerd, chief information officer at Guggenheim, as cryptocurrency prices fell and investors returned to gold and silver, the final gold price target was set at the US $5,000 to the US $10,000. Minerd also forecasts a 10% correction in US stocks over the next six months but added that the S&P 500 index would eventually reach 5000 points, if not higher.

On May 26, Guggenheim Chief Information Officer Scott Minerd stated that as cryptocurrency prices fell and investors returned to gold and silver, precious metals would gain momentum, with the final gold price target set at the US $5,000 to $10,000.

To read the most recent report, open the app.

“As funds exit the cryptocurrency market, people will continue to seek inflation-hedging instruments, and gold and silver will be better choices,” Minerd said in an interview.

According to Minerd, this will take time due to the size of the gold market, but the precious metals will enter an “exponential rise.”

He added that the ultimate goal for gold is a price of between US $5,000 and $10,000 per ounce.

Silver’s price typically lags. This is the poor man’s gold. It may also surpass gold as the most valuable precious metal. It is a version of gold with a high beta.

When discussing the future of cryptocurrencies, Minerd stated that while he believes Bitcoin and Ethereum will endure, new cryptocurrencies will likely dominate the digital asset space.

Additionally, he stated, “We will discover that some new cryptocurrencies will emerge for an extended period.” It can resolve several of the issues we are currently facing, including mining costs and total carbon production. It will develop into a high-level cryptocurrency and eventually become the dominant one.”

Minerd also forecasts a 10% correction in US stocks but predicted that the S & P 500 index would eventually recover.

“I believe the US stock market will experience a correction,” he stated. I believe that the US stock market will experience a 10% correction over the next six months. However, I think the S & P 500 will eventually surpass 5000 points. It could even be more extraordinary.

At 8:44 a.m. Beijing time on May 27, spot gold was quoted at $1,894.59 per ounce.

Gold continued to test the 1890 level today!

Last Friday, Gold staged another roller coaster ride. As expected, the US market surged higher and halted. The 1889/90 position fell and then retreated. It repeatedly failed to test the low point support in 1870. It came to a halt, stabilized, and rebounded here. Late Friday, more orders were traded in the 1873 area. Today, Monday, the quotation begins at the year 1882 and harvests! Gold fell at the end of last week, but it got off to a good start this week. Even in 1890, gold encountered resistance. The suppression has been prompted numerous times, and it is still focused on today. At the moment, the gold top is still meeting resistance at the 1890 level, and the situation is shocking. Early trading suggests that gold is not attempting to reach new highs. This can be relied on to suppress the short-term. Look for 1870 to act as a support law and multiple bullish signals in the chart below. Treat in shock within the range. A new wave will emerge after breaking through in 1890. More orders will be followed up on! Last week, gold closed at the extensive Yangxian line once more. The current 1870 position is supported. It did not break the position after touching this position after falling twice on Friday. The deep market V then retraced its steps, continuing to test the 1890 level today! Because the current trend is still upward, try to focus on low and long operations, but if you don’t break through before 1890, don’t chase long. Instead, they retreat and rely on the support of 1870 to last. Early trading caused the short of Bo to be suppressed in 1890, and it is now hitting 1877/. The 75 areas left the field and then returned around 1875, bullish with support at 1870! Today’s gold business ideas: Backhand close 1875 to do more protection in 1868, target the 1885-90 area; gold 1885-90 empty orders left the field in the 1877/75 area; gold 1885-90 deserted orders left the field in the 1877/75 area; gold 1885-90 open orders left the field in the 1877/75 area; gold 1885-90 open orders left the field in the 1877/75 area; gold 1885-90 empty orders left the field in the 1877/75 area; gold 18

S&P 500 flatlines while Dow and Nasdaq moderates

The Dow and the major U.S. indexes fell on Monday as the Dow technology stocks tumbled.

Major Wall Street leading indices closed lower at the close, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) down 55.20 points, or 0.2%, at 33,745.40.

Losses were concentrated in communication services, information technology, and energy stocks. The broad S&P 500 Index (SPY) of large-cap stocks closed at 4,127.99.

The technology-focused Nasdaq Composite Index (QQQ) rose 0.5% to close at 13,900.19.

A measure of implied volatility known as the CBOE VIX (VXX) edged slightly higher on Monday. The so-called “investor fear index” reached an intraday high of 16.91 on a scale of 1-100, where 20 represents the historical average. It would eventually settle up 1.3% at 16.91.

In commodities, oil prices rose on Monday, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures gaining 45 cents, or 0.8%, to $59.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent, the international futures contract, rose 40 cents or 0.6%, to $63.35 a barrel.

In precious metals, gold prices declined on Monday, as the June futures contract dipped $12.60, or 0.7%, to $1,732.20 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Silver futures fell 48 cents, or 1.9%, to $24.85 a troy ounce.

Still, markets continue to be supported near all-time highs despite Monday’s modest pullback. Investors are pushing up share prices on optimism the U.S. economy is regaining momentum.

The S&P500 and Nasdaq surged while the Dow Jones staggered.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq surged on Wednesday while the Dow Jones staggered.
The Dow staggered the broader U.S. stock market on Wednesday, as sinking energy and financials shares weighed on the benchmark index.
Wall Street’s leading indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) declining 85.41 points, or 0.3%, to 32,981.55.
The broad S&P 500 Index (SPY) of large-cap stocks gained 0.4% to close at 3,973.33. Five of the 11 primary sectors ended in the negative area, with information technology climbing 1.5%. Consumer discretionary shares rose 0.8% as a collective.
Meantime, the technology-focused Nasdaq Composite Index (QQQ) advanced 1.5% to settle at 13,246.87.
A measure of indicated volatility recognised as the CBOE VIX (VXX) fell on Wednesday, reversing some of its early-week gains. The so-called “market fear index” moved an intraday low of 18.85 on a scale of 1-100, where 20 outlines the past average. It would ultimately settle down 1.6% at 19.30.
In commodities, oil prices settled on Wednesday, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures tumbling $1.21, or 2%, to $59.34 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent, the international futures contract, fell 60 cents or 0.9% to $63.54 a barrel.
In precious metals, gold prices bounced sharply on Wednesday, as the June futures contract rose $21.40, or 1.3%, to $1,707.40 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Silver futures climbed 30 cents, or 1.3%, to $24.44 a troy ounce.
The conclusion: U.S. stocks resume to trade near record highs, encouraged by optimism that the economy is healing from the Covid-19 pandemic. More than 30.4 million Covid cases have been listed in the United States, though the infection pace continues to decline from earlier levels.

USD Rises Following Biden’s New Infrastructure Plan

With the new infrastructure plan coming, the US dollar breaks through this year’s new high. Biden to expose $2 trillion, 8-year infrastructure plan

  Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Quarles said on Tuesday that a group of financial regulators would make recommendations in July to increase the resilience of money market funds and reduce the probability of receiving government aid in the future. The group will focus on money market funds and short-term funds—the relationship between markets. Besides, he also stated that investors should believe the Fed’s statement on the current inflation target, allowing inflation to be slightly higher than 2%.

  The IMF will release its global economic outlook report next Tuesday, which will raise its global GDP forecasts for this year and next. In January, it was expected to grow by 5.5% and 4.2%, respectively. The IMF warned that the outlook for the epidemic is uncertain. A small number of countries headed by China and the United States can exceed the GDP by the end of this year, while other countries’ recovery is “dangerously divided.” After the US fiscal stimulus, inflation may reach 2.5%, “but that is not a concern.”

  Some representatives of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said that after Saudi Arabia expressed that the figure was too high, the OPEC+ technical expert group agreed to lower the oil demand forecast for 2021. They also stated that OPEC+ will still avoid a substantial increase in crude oil production when it meets on April 1.

  According to satellite news, the Saudi side has promised to continue to reduce production voluntarily. The Saudi side has contacted some OPEC countries, most of which hope to extend the (production reduction) agreement to May. However, the Kremlin stated that Russian President Putin currently has no plans to hold talks with Saudi Arabia on OPEC+. OPEC data shows that if the production cut is extended, the inventory in May will be reduced by 2.9 million barrels per day. OPEC expects that the oil reserve surplus will be exhausted before the end of the second quarter. The oil inventory surplus will fall to 3 million barrels at the end of the second quarter.

  The White House will probably announce a $ 2.25 trillion infrastructure investment plan on Wednesday; The Washington Post, citing two people familiar with the matter, reported that Biden would announce a $2.25 trillion infrastructure and employment support package Pittsburgh on Wednesday. The package includes approximately US$650 billion to rebuild roads, bridges, highways and ports, about US$400 billion to care for the elderly and the disabled, US$300 billion to housing infrastructure, and US$300 billion to revitalise the manufacturing Industry. In addition to the $2.25 trillion plan, the White House will also launch an approximately $400 billion clean energy loan program. Other investments include hundreds of billions of dollars for power grids, national high-speed broadband and clean drinking water. The White House will issue a second set of drafts within a few weeks, including the expansion of medical insurance and child tax deductions. The combined size of all bills may exceed 4 trillion U.S. dollars.

  Yumi Shinohara, deputy manager of the fleet management department of Zhengrong Steamship, the owner of the container ship “Nagachi”, said that the company had not received any claims or litigation regarding the blockage of the Suez Canal.

  Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds gave up most of their gains after hitting a 14-month high. The Dow fell more than a hundred points, the pan-European stock index approached its historical high set 13 months ago, and German stocks reached a new high. The U.S. dollar hit a new high in more than four months, and Bitcoin rose above 59,000 U.S. dollars in intraday trading, setting a new high in more than a week. Gold fell below US$1,700 and approached an 11-month low, silver hit a three-month low, London copper hit a new low for more than five weeks, and crude oil ended two consecutive rises and fell to more than one-week highs.

 

Considering the previous trends, where will the dollar go next?

School establishment:
   It’s the start of a new trading day. The school uses the US dollar index as the core of its predictions on international currency markets.

According to today’s disk, the performance of the US dollar index is somewhat surprising. The disk has fallen beneath the neckline of the “head and shoulders pattern” on the previous day. This technical pattern often indicates uncertainty in the markets as the longs and shorts squabble back and forth, unsure how to go.

Thinking more deeply, the market confirms that the cross star appears immediately after the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern breaks. This can only show one problem. The gap is not strong and may not have a big impact on the market. This makes the school stand. Suddenly remembered the previous performance when the market broke through the neckline of the “head and shoulders bottom pattern”, it was exactly the same, because at that time, after the market effectively broke through the head and shoulders bottom pattern, the cross star line also appeared on the second day, and now it is also out of the same situation. Will this be a remake? I believe only time can tell.

I have to say that the current US dollar is really stuck, the market has not started an effective market, and even has a trend of failure to break through, and now the US dollar has suddenly reproduced the previous scene, which makes people speechless, and believes that the market will not be too big. Quotes are given. After all, the US dollar is still dormant. It is also difficult to give a larger quote at this time.

   How to predict the next step of the dollar index? The school believes that it may be similar to the trend when the previous breakthrough occurred. In other words, the US dollar index may see some declines today, and it is also possible to produce a new breakthrough downward, but it may be temporarily for a sharp decline. No, after all, the larger pattern of the US dollar still needs to be bullish rather than bearish. The current situation is just a short-term game. It can also be seen as sweeping fluctuations in a range of shocks, since the market has been re-enacted. Part of the previous trend, then it is not impossible to continue to reproduce the follow-up trend. Because this market is a “everything is possible” market.

At the operational level, it is still based on short-term thinking, looking for opportunities to overestimate or underestimate the scum; adopt different coping strategies for different varieties, try to choose valuable points to enter the market, remember to bring a stop loss just in case, after all, the current There are still many crises in the market, and only care can make the Wannian Ship!

   EUR/USD:

  Combined with the above analysis, today Europe and the United States can actually overestimate the low scum, but combined with the market analysis, it is more appropriate to deploy a short-selling strategy on rallies today. Give the following suggestions and refer to the operation as appropriate. Weak position:

   Short selling in the 1.2180-1.2190 range, stop loss 20 points, target 1.2160, 1.2140, 1.2120.

EUR/USD

  USD/JPY:

  The second operation currency pair today, continue to choose the US and Japan. Because currently only the United States and Japan can still have the opportunity to deploy, other direct currencies have excessive behavior, but they are dangerous. Combining the board to give the following suggestions, refer to the operation as appropriate, and wet warehouse:

  Buy in the 105.15-105.25 interval, stop loss 20 points, target 105.45, 105.65, 105.85.

USD/JPY

  Gold:

   Gold is in a state of shock; gold’s liquidity has become worse and worse, meaning less and less volatility. However, the price of gold will still fluctuate. After all, gold is still the largest trading product today.

From an operational perspective, today’s gold can have opportunities for overestimation and low slag, which are around 1818 and 1796, respectively. However, considering the current potential risks in the market, we can only consider low-to-multiple suggestions today, and the market will do whatever the opportunity is. Wait and see without giving a chance, Wessang:

  Buy in the range of 1795-1796, stop loss 3 dollars, target 1799, 1803, 1808.

February 18 Financial breakfest

On Wednesday (February 17), the US dollar index hit a new high since February 8 to 91.05. Optimistic economic data and signs of rising inflation helped push the dollar higher. Spot gold fell for five consecutive days, refreshing its lowest point since November 30 last year to US$1,769.65 per ounce. The strengthening of the US dollar and better-than-expected US economic data reduced gold’s attractiveness as a haven. Oil prices rose by more than 2%, and U.S. oil and Bursa oil hit their highest points since January last year to 61.73 US dollars/barrel and 64.96 US dollars/barrel respectively. The severe cold weather caused US oil production to plunge by a record 40%.

Commodity closing, COMEX April gold futures closed down 1.5%, at 1,772.80 US dollars per ounce. WTI March crude oil futures closed up 1.09 US dollars, or 1.81%, to 61.14 US dollars per barrel; Brent April crude oil futures closed up 0.99 US dollars, or 1.56%, to 64.34 US dollars per barrel.

The three major US stock indexes closed mixed. The Dow Jones index closed up 90.30 points, or 0.29%, to 3,161,302 points; the S&P 500 index closed down 1.30 points, or 0.03%, to 3,931.32 points; the Nasdaq index closed down 82.00 points, a decrease of 0.58%, to 13,965.49 points.

Thursday preview

Time Area Index Previous value Predicted value
08:30 Australia January seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (%) 6.6 6.5
08:30 Australia January employment-population change (10,000 people) 5 3
18:00 Eurozone January unseasonally adjusted CPI annual rate final value (%) 0.9

18:00 The final value of the core CPI annual rate in the Eurozone without seasonal adjustment in January (%) 1.4 0.9
21:30 U.S. January construction permit monthly rate (%) 4.5 -1.6
21:30 U.S. Total number of construction permits in January (10,000 households) 170.9 167.7
21:30 U.S. January import price index monthly rate (%) 0.9 1
21:30 United States January import price index annual rate (%) -0.3 0.4
21:30 United States January annualised monthly rate of housing starts (%) 5.8 -0.7
21:30 U.S. Annualised total number of housing starts in January (10,000 households) 166.9 165.8
21:30 United States As of February 13, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits (10,000) 79.3 77.3
21:30 United States As of February 6th, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits (10,000) 454.5 442.3
23:00 Eurozone February Consumer Confidence Index Initial Value -15.5 -15
00:00 AM U.S. EIA crude oil inventory changes in the week ending February 12 (10,000 barrels) -664.5

00:00 AM U.S. EIA refined oil inventory changes in the week ending February 12 (10,000 barrels) -173.2

00:00 in the morning U.S. EIA gasoline inventory changes in the week ending February 12 (10,000 barrels) 425.9

07:05 Dallas Fed President Kaplan participated in an online dialogue event hosted by the Dallas Fed to discuss the US and global economic issues

20:30 ECB announces minutes of a monetary policy meeting

21:00 Federal Reserve Governor Brainard delivers a speech

23:00 2021 FOMC voting committee and Atlanta Fed President Bostic delivers a speech

List of major global markets

The three major U.S. stock indexes” the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high, the S&P 500 closed flat, while the Nasdaq Composite Index fell; U.S. bond yields fell from a one-year high, investors weighed Economic growth and inflation outlook.

State Street Global Investment Management US SPDR ETF chief investment officer Michael Arone said that those companies whose earnings are vulnerable to inflation and cannot support their current high valuations are under selling pressure, including technology stocks. At some point, rising yields may Bringing shock, but I don’t think it’s there yet.

Precious metals and crude oil

Gold futures prices closed down for the fourth consecutive trading day, closing at the lowest level since June 2020. According to Dow Jones market data, the most active gold futures contract appeared on Wednesday for the first time since June 2018, 50%. The daily moving average crosses the 200-day moving average, indicating that the long-term price trend may be down in the future. Analysts said that rising U.S. Treasury yields are usually conducive to the rise of the dollar, both of which are bad for gold prices.

Oil prices rose by more than 2%, and U.S. oil and Bursa oil hit their highest points since January last year to 61.73 US dollars/barrel and 64.96 US dollars/barrel respectively. The severe cold weather in Texas, the largest oil-producing state in the United States, led to the suspension of oil fields in the state and abnormally cold weather. It is expected to drag down crude oil production in the next few days or even weeks.

Oil prices supported by factors such as OPEC+ supply restrictions, additional cuts in Saudi production, and hopes that new crown vaccination will lead to a rebound in demand. The historic cold weather in Texas since last weekend has further pushed up oil prices. Most of the crude oil supply in the United States comes from Texas, which is part of the major refining centres in the United States.

Due to unprecedented cold weather freezing oil well operations in the United States’ central region, the United States’ daily oil production has fallen by more than 4 million barrels. Refinery shutdowns triggered by severe cold weather have reduced U.S. crude oil demand. According to Bob Yawger, head of energy futures at Mizuho in New York, this brings us to a higher level. The price of US crude oil may reach its peak near US$65.65.

The rising prices environment has made people more concerned about OPEC+, and the alliance will meet on March 4 to formulate policies. OPEC+ sources said that given the rebound in oil prices, the alliance’s oil-producing countries might relax supply restrictions after April.

Foreign exchange

The dollar rose on Wednesday, hitting a new high since February 8 to 91.05. Optimistic economic data and signs of increasing inflation helped push the dollar higher against a basket of currencies. The dollar index rose from the three-week low touched last Friday, rising 0.40% to 90.94 in late trading. The US retail sales, industrial production and producer price index (PPI) data released on Wednesday exceeded expectations. This shows that as vaccination progresses, the momentum for the economy to recover from the pandemic-induced recession is increasing.

Marc Chandler, the chief market strategist at Bannockburn Forex, said that today’s retail sales data is not only stronger than expected but far exceeding expectations. The same is valid for industrial production data. The dollar trend started yesterday, and what we see today is a continuation. Many people are still bearish on the dollar, but there is more room for this upward trend.

The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting on January 26-27. Participants stated that they need to “be vigilant” in the light of the recent economic rebound. They also discussed the expected rise in inflation and reiterated easing policies to support the ailing job market. Nothing is surprising about the meeting minutes.

Chandler said that in general, there is not much new information in the minutes of the Fed’s meeting, and the market is looking forward to the testimony of Fed Chairman Powell next week.

Despite the optimistic economic report, US Treasury yields reversed the recent upward momentum due to weakening selling pressure. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell back to 1.270% at the end of the session and was as high as 1.331% earlier in the session.

The euro fell 0.56% against the US dollar to 1.2038. The pound fell 0.33% against the dollar to 1.3857, after hitting its highest level since April 2018 on Tuesday.

During the Asian trading hours, the dollar-yen, which is sensitive to US yields, rose to 106.22, the highest since September last year, and fell back to 105.87 in late trading, down 0.16%.

In other currency pairs, the Australian dollar fell 0.09% to the US dollar to 0.7751; the New Zealand dollar fell 0.33% to 0.7191 against the US dollar; the US dollar rose 0.72% to the Swiss franc to 0.8989; the US dollar rose 0.09% to the Canadian dollar to 1.2702.

International news

[Minutes of the Federal Reserve Meeting: The conditions for reducing the intensity of QE cannot be met for “a time”] The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the January FOMC monetary policy meeting, stating that it may take some time for the US economy to make substantial progress. I am afraid that the conditions for reducing the intensity of asset purchases (QE) will not be met “for a while”. He is optimistic about inflation, but he is cautious about the labour market. Before adjusting the speed of asset purchases, it is essential to communicate with the public. The degree of improvement in the medium-term outlook has been sufficient for the Fed to adjust its views in its interest rate resolution statement.

[API report: U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 5.8 million barrels to 468 million barrels last week] As of the week of February 12, API gasoline inventories increased by 3.9 million barrels, refined oil inventories decreased by 3.5 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 3 million Barrels; US crude oil imports increased by 26,000 barrels per day last week.

[It is reported that crude oil production in the Permian Basin in the United States was frozen due to severe cold weather. Crude oil production in the Permian Basin fell by 80%, and US crude oil production fell by more than 40% or 4 million barrels per day.]

[Fed Rosengren: It is expected that inflation data will improve overtime this year. If inflation becomes a problem, the Fed will fix it. It is estimated that inflation cannot be maintained at around 2% in the next one or two years. There is indeed a “bubble” in some parts of the market, but people are less concerned about financial stability before the economy is close to full employment]

Ramsden said that the central bank has further room to expand its bond purchase program to stimulate the economy. This statement may indicate that prominent bank officials may be unwilling to Lower interest rates below zero. Ramsden said that the Bank of England might reassess some restrictions on the bank’s purchase of British government bonds in the financial market. He said that although the central bank does not rule out negative interest rates, quantitative easing is a “tested tool.” These remarks show that although the Bank of England expects that the new crown vaccine’s promotion can lead to a robust economic recovery, the central bank does not rule out the possibility of increasing stimulus measures.

Texas bans many natural gas companies from sending energy outside the state. Texas will extend its ban on foreign natural gas sales until February 21. Texas still has 19,800 megawatts (MW) of natural gas power capacity offline, and 17,200 MW of wind/solar (000591, share bar) power capacity is still offline.

[US SEC considers increasing short-sale transparency] The Wall Street Journal (blog, Weibo) quoted a source saying that the US Securities Exchange is considering whether to increase the transparency of short-sales and private lending to the soaring share price of Game Post. Eleven years ago, the authorities asked the SEC to implement such rules, but they never realised it. Now, in response to the stock trading frenzy caused by the game station incident, the US Securities and Exchange Commission is considering increasing the transparency of short-selling transactions within its scope of authority.

Domestic news

[Securities Daily front page: Five reasons for institutions to sing more A shares, the first week of the ox year may welcome a “good start” market] The industry generally believes that compared with the past Spring Festival market, the probability of the stock market rising after the holiday this year is higher. Most institutions said that the five reasons might help A shares usher in the first week of “good start.” First of all, the market has a higher probability of rising after the holiday. Secondly, the surrounding markets continue to “rising”. During the Chinese New Year holiday, the A-share market was boosted by economic recovery expectations, and “rising” became the keynote of major global markets. Third, commodity prices have hit new highs. Fourth, the RMB exchange rate’s appreciation has made RMB assets increasingly attractive to international capital, and foreign investors favour shares. Fifth, market funds are abundant. The inflexion point of liquidity tightening that some market participants worry about has not appeared. Industry insiders believe that, in the context of the upcoming launch of larger-scale economic stimulus plans in Europe and the United States, my country does not have the basis for immediate tightening of liquidity.