Category Archives: China

Do you buy U.S. Treasury bonds for China’s foreign exchange reserves, and China Merchants Bank’s exchange for foreign exchange still ignores

Do you buy U.S. Treasury bonds for China’s foreign exchange reserves, and China Merchants Bank’s exchange for foreign exchange still ignores

Are you on our foreign exchange reserves to buy U.S. Treasury bonds? China Merchants Bank personal foreign exchange swap places still do not understand. Will we talk about the details and our country’s foreign exchange reserves to buy U.S. Treasury bonds and China Merchants Bank to exchange personal knowledge related to foreign exchange?
As the foreign exchange market is becoming more and more popular, more and more people also want to participate in foreign exchange transactions. But in fact, there are many pits in foreign exchange transactions, so how should the pits be settled? If you directly search for information on the Internet, it is easy for someone to do business. Then you can systematically learn some foreign exchange trading-related technologies and some knowledge related to foreign exchange trading here.

1. What is news trading law
U.S. President Biden: The economy is developing in the right direction, and recovery still has a long way to go. Later in May, the next phase of state and local government assistance will be launched. I do not think that unemployment benefits hurt employment data. The European Union calls on the United States to keep up with the pace of Europe’s new crown vaccine exports: European Commission President Von der Lein said that the E.U. should be open to the intellectual property rights (exemptions) of the new crown pneumonia vaccine. The vaccine patent exemption will not bring new short-term supplies. The European Union has exported 200 million vaccines, calling on the United States to keep up with the European Union’s export rhythm. Biden said he would like to see corporate tax rates of 25%-28%, suggesting that the acceptable tax rate is lower than his proposal. Biden added that a corporate tax rate of 25%-28% can help raise funds for investment projects, Implying that he accepts a tax rate lower than the level he proposed. During a visit to Lake Charles, Louisiana, Biden said: “The way I can fund this is to ensure that the most prominent companies do not pay zero taxes and reduce (2017) corporate tax cuts to 25%-28%. ”

2. What is the foreign exchange fund management
Fund management determines the degree of risk tolerance through the analysis of transaction risks and potential profits and controls risks through the management of transaction funds to ensure maximum profits. Most traders always verbally declare that they value money management. Still, they spend a lot of time looking for the perfect trading system or entry point, ignoring the importance of money management. The importance of fund management is reflected in response to risks. Investment traders who have experienced losses know that if they want to return to the break-even point after a certain level of loss, it means increasing their positions to a greater extent. If the loss reaches 50%, you need to increase the funds by 100% if you want to return to the break-even point. It is precisely because the magnitude of this decline is different from that of the rise that the destructive power of a sharp decline on investment profits and losses is self-evident. Therefore, those investment traders who have achieved long-term success will attach such importance to controlling losses. Only by doing an excellent job controlling losses can they lay a solid foundation for long-term profits. However, the proper management of control of transaction funds is a very effective means. Investment traders like to hear stories about legends making their fortunes with small funds, but many legends end up bankrupting their wealth due to a lack of risk control, often overlooked by the investing public.

3. Wave trading theory
Eliot published his theory in the book “The Principle of Waves.” In Elliott’s view, the market presents an iterative process. He pointed out that this process of change was caused by changes in investor sentiment caused by external factors or by the dominant psychology of the market at that time. Elliott explained that because the collective mental state of the market has led to price fluctuations, this mental state is always reflected in repeated patterns. He called the up and down fluctuations of prices “waves.” Elliott believes that if you can correctly judge the establishment of a trend, you can predict when the trend will end accordingly. The subsequent price fluctuation direction after the trend is established. This is also the reason why the Elliott band attracts so many investors. Elliott’s theory taught investors a way to determine the particular node of the price trend. At this node, the possibility of a price trend reversal is very high. In other words, Elliott built a system that allows traders to capture the top and bottom of the market. So Elliott discovered the rules of unnecessary price fluctuations. Isn’t it amazing? But before we start studying Elliott waves, you need to know what fractals are.

No matter when you conduct foreign exchange transactions, the reserve of knowledge is crucial. After reading the above content, you must have your system and theory for this, and then you can digest it through practice.

The depreciation of the U.S. dollar, the future trend is unpredictable

This week the foreign exchange market, the dollar depreciation of the main events, a week quotes 93.9480 to 93.6180 point downstream point, the depreciation of 0.35%; 94.1785-93.4950 point amplitude between the highest and the lowest was 0.72%. As a result, other major currency followers have their characteristics. Among them, the appreciation of the pound sterling has helped the U.S. dollar significantly, and the exchange rate range has risen to 1.38 US dollars. The appreciation of the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar have strong coordination, with the Australian dollar reaching US$0.74 and the New Zealand dollar to US$0.72. Over the weekend, the yen only appreciated 113 yen, while the Canadian dollar remained high at 1.23 Canadian dollars. Only the euro remained stable at 1.16 US dollars, and the Swiss franc remained stable at 0.91 Swiss francs. Our RMB sudden appreciation and then topped 6,400 yuan mark, the two comparable level, opening the shore in partial derogatory 6.43 yuan, offshore partial rose 6.42 yuan but closed both 6.38 yuan, 6.3850 onshore partial banished from slightly below The shore is 6.3820 yuan.

The U.S. dollar dominates the current foreign exchange market. After all, the economic and policy influence of the U.S. dollar is more potent than that of all currencies, and the will of the U.S. dollar in the exchange rate game is still at the mercy of the market logic and guidance. The prospects deviate from the economy or are highly speculative or anxious—leading to cause and background.

1. The expected advancement of U.S. monetary policy is the focus of operational parameters. One week the Fed several officials of speech, including Bao Weier speech the President of the economy certainly favor or outbreaks soothing rhetoric and policy loosening is evident, then the market is expected to raise interest rates ahead of time is the key, actual debt reduction or step by step forward, then U.S. Treasury yields up protrude. Among them, the 10-year Treasury bond yield has risen to 1.7%, indicating that the Fed’s actions are intensive and the layout observation is positive. At this time, the devaluation of the U.S. dollar is the key. After all, it is the key to stabilizing the economy with interest rate hike expectations, and the devaluation of the U.S. dollar is significant to protect the economy. The old way of the U.S. dollar currency has always been concerned about and adjusted to the economy. Being proactive is the key to the current U.S. economic timeliness. Therefore, the Fed’s monetary policy is the key to benchmarking the economy, and it is also the focus of the actual results of actual measures. The primary and secondary logic of currency and economy is that currency protects the economy and is the focus of attention. Since President Biden came to power, he has always focused on the concerns and facts of the domestic economy. The U.S. economy has been prosperous so far. It is the market focus that has the background and the support of factors.

2. The actual profit and performance of the enterprise highlight the functional effect. The focus of the market this week is the financial reports of listed companies in the United States. The final result is that companies’ financial reports are positive or their earnings are more prominent than expected. At present, 84% of the financial reports that the market has seen are profits or exceed-expected profits, and even corporate profits have generally increased by 33.7%. As a result, U.S. stocks have soared. The Dow broke a record high of 35,765.02 points, and the S&P recorded a high of 4551.44 points. The three major stock indexes rose by 1.08, 1.29%, and 1.64% in the week, and even the aviation sector is a surprising profit model. The logic of listed companies in the United States is apparent. On the one hand, the government policies for corporate rescue are appropriate. The Federal Reserve’s debt purchases are to help companies have sufficient liquidity. Even if inflation is coming, corporate capital flow and cash flow smoothly support economic cycles or development needs, so the United States The profitability of the company remains undiminished. On the other hand, the U.S. employment index is unsuitable for applying for unemployment benefits or non-agricultural purposes. However, the unemployment rate in the United States has dropped significantly. The increase in the rate is related to the stability and quality of labor. This is a severe problem deliberately ignored by American public opinion and an essential basis for the dollar’s depreciation. However, the U.S. economy is not at the level of polarization of public opinion. The overall economy and the logic of reality require careful observation and comparison.

3. The multi-angle combination of complex factors in the international environment is prominent. The current market highlights the upward trend of international oil prices. New York oil futures prices have risen for nine consecutive weeks. This is the most extended weekly rise since April 1983, and this is also why the depreciation of the U.S. dollar is justified. After all, the financialization of oil has been integrated into the critical position of the U.S. dollar framework, and the controllability of U.S. oil has been quite beneficial. The rising oil will be the focus and combined support of many issues around the world. The current stimulus of rising oil is unavoidable, and the two significant areas of production and consumption with industrial characteristics will be unavoidable. Coupled with the more geopolitical nature of oil, poor international relations are inevitable for oil stimulus. It is also an important new element and new framework focus of U.S. foreign relations. In particular, the U.S. government announced on the weekend that the U.S. fiscal year deficit for 2021 was the second-highest in history. It was 2.77 trillion U.S. dollars, less than 3.13 trillion U.S. dollars in the previous year. The contradiction problem of the United States shows the power and credibility of the U.S. dollar and indicates the risks and pressures of the U.S. dollar. The two-sided logic is appropriately used by the skilled U.S. dollar and can be used with ease.

It is expected that the depreciation of the U.S. dollar next week will be the fermentation of concerns about the size of the U.S. fiscal deficit. Still, it is expected that the exchange rate will be challenging to implement, and the actual U.S. dollar may have to appreciate due to the depreciation of the significant basket currencies. After all, the appreciation of major currencies in the main basket increases economic and policy risks. Repairing the market will certainly not be conducive to the depreciation of the U.S. dollar. However, commodity resource prices may rise. The U.S. dollar has more than a handful of hands. The U.S. dollar’s ​​incredible combination of technologies, strategies, and policies requires comprehensive observation and response.

(Editor in charge: Wang Zhiqiang HF013)

 

Bitcoin is frozen, whilst Gold expected to rise.

Bitcoin is frozen, whilst Gold expected to rise. Can it reach 10,000 US dollars in extreme cases?

May 27 – Huitong.com According to Scott Minerd, chief information officer at Guggenheim, as cryptocurrency prices fell and investors returned to gold and silver, the final gold price target was set at the US $5,000 to the US $10,000. Minerd also forecasts a 10% correction in US stocks over the next six months but added that the S&P 500 index would eventually reach 5000 points, if not higher.

On May 26, Guggenheim Chief Information Officer Scott Minerd stated that as cryptocurrency prices fell and investors returned to gold and silver, precious metals would gain momentum, with the final gold price target set at the US $5,000 to $10,000.

To read the most recent report, open the app.

“As funds exit the cryptocurrency market, people will continue to seek inflation-hedging instruments, and gold and silver will be better choices,” Minerd said in an interview.

According to Minerd, this will take time due to the size of the gold market, but the precious metals will enter an “exponential rise.”

He added that the ultimate goal for gold is a price of between US $5,000 and $10,000 per ounce.

Silver’s price typically lags. This is the poor man’s gold. It may also surpass gold as the most valuable precious metal. It is a version of gold with a high beta.

When discussing the future of cryptocurrencies, Minerd stated that while he believes Bitcoin and Ethereum will endure, new cryptocurrencies will likely dominate the digital asset space.

Additionally, he stated, “We will discover that some new cryptocurrencies will emerge for an extended period.” It can resolve several of the issues we are currently facing, including mining costs and total carbon production. It will develop into a high-level cryptocurrency and eventually become the dominant one.”

Minerd also forecasts a 10% correction in US stocks but predicted that the S & P 500 index would eventually recover.

“I believe the US stock market will experience a correction,” he stated. I believe that the US stock market will experience a 10% correction over the next six months. However, I think the S & P 500 will eventually surpass 5000 points. It could even be more extraordinary.

At 8:44 a.m. Beijing time on May 27, spot gold was quoted at $1,894.59 per ounce.

February 18 Financial breakfest

On Wednesday (February 17), the US dollar index hit a new high since February 8 to 91.05. Optimistic economic data and signs of rising inflation helped push the dollar higher. Spot gold fell for five consecutive days, refreshing its lowest point since November 30 last year to US$1,769.65 per ounce. The strengthening of the US dollar and better-than-expected US economic data reduced gold’s attractiveness as a haven. Oil prices rose by more than 2%, and U.S. oil and Bursa oil hit their highest points since January last year to 61.73 US dollars/barrel and 64.96 US dollars/barrel respectively. The severe cold weather caused US oil production to plunge by a record 40%.

Commodity closing, COMEX April gold futures closed down 1.5%, at 1,772.80 US dollars per ounce. WTI March crude oil futures closed up 1.09 US dollars, or 1.81%, to 61.14 US dollars per barrel; Brent April crude oil futures closed up 0.99 US dollars, or 1.56%, to 64.34 US dollars per barrel.

The three major US stock indexes closed mixed. The Dow Jones index closed up 90.30 points, or 0.29%, to 3,161,302 points; the S&P 500 index closed down 1.30 points, or 0.03%, to 3,931.32 points; the Nasdaq index closed down 82.00 points, a decrease of 0.58%, to 13,965.49 points.

Thursday preview

Time Area Index Previous value Predicted value
08:30 Australia January seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (%) 6.6 6.5
08:30 Australia January employment-population change (10,000 people) 5 3
18:00 Eurozone January unseasonally adjusted CPI annual rate final value (%) 0.9

18:00 The final value of the core CPI annual rate in the Eurozone without seasonal adjustment in January (%) 1.4 0.9
21:30 U.S. January construction permit monthly rate (%) 4.5 -1.6
21:30 U.S. Total number of construction permits in January (10,000 households) 170.9 167.7
21:30 U.S. January import price index monthly rate (%) 0.9 1
21:30 United States January import price index annual rate (%) -0.3 0.4
21:30 United States January annualised monthly rate of housing starts (%) 5.8 -0.7
21:30 U.S. Annualised total number of housing starts in January (10,000 households) 166.9 165.8
21:30 United States As of February 13, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits (10,000) 79.3 77.3
21:30 United States As of February 6th, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits (10,000) 454.5 442.3
23:00 Eurozone February Consumer Confidence Index Initial Value -15.5 -15
00:00 AM U.S. EIA crude oil inventory changes in the week ending February 12 (10,000 barrels) -664.5

00:00 AM U.S. EIA refined oil inventory changes in the week ending February 12 (10,000 barrels) -173.2

00:00 in the morning U.S. EIA gasoline inventory changes in the week ending February 12 (10,000 barrels) 425.9

07:05 Dallas Fed President Kaplan participated in an online dialogue event hosted by the Dallas Fed to discuss the US and global economic issues

20:30 ECB announces minutes of a monetary policy meeting

21:00 Federal Reserve Governor Brainard delivers a speech

23:00 2021 FOMC voting committee and Atlanta Fed President Bostic delivers a speech

List of major global markets

The three major U.S. stock indexes” the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high, the S&P 500 closed flat, while the Nasdaq Composite Index fell; U.S. bond yields fell from a one-year high, investors weighed Economic growth and inflation outlook.

State Street Global Investment Management US SPDR ETF chief investment officer Michael Arone said that those companies whose earnings are vulnerable to inflation and cannot support their current high valuations are under selling pressure, including technology stocks. At some point, rising yields may Bringing shock, but I don’t think it’s there yet.

Precious metals and crude oil

Gold futures prices closed down for the fourth consecutive trading day, closing at the lowest level since June 2020. According to Dow Jones market data, the most active gold futures contract appeared on Wednesday for the first time since June 2018, 50%. The daily moving average crosses the 200-day moving average, indicating that the long-term price trend may be down in the future. Analysts said that rising U.S. Treasury yields are usually conducive to the rise of the dollar, both of which are bad for gold prices.

Oil prices rose by more than 2%, and U.S. oil and Bursa oil hit their highest points since January last year to 61.73 US dollars/barrel and 64.96 US dollars/barrel respectively. The severe cold weather in Texas, the largest oil-producing state in the United States, led to the suspension of oil fields in the state and abnormally cold weather. It is expected to drag down crude oil production in the next few days or even weeks.

Oil prices supported by factors such as OPEC+ supply restrictions, additional cuts in Saudi production, and hopes that new crown vaccination will lead to a rebound in demand. The historic cold weather in Texas since last weekend has further pushed up oil prices. Most of the crude oil supply in the United States comes from Texas, which is part of the major refining centres in the United States.

Due to unprecedented cold weather freezing oil well operations in the United States’ central region, the United States’ daily oil production has fallen by more than 4 million barrels. Refinery shutdowns triggered by severe cold weather have reduced U.S. crude oil demand. According to Bob Yawger, head of energy futures at Mizuho in New York, this brings us to a higher level. The price of US crude oil may reach its peak near US$65.65.

The rising prices environment has made people more concerned about OPEC+, and the alliance will meet on March 4 to formulate policies. OPEC+ sources said that given the rebound in oil prices, the alliance’s oil-producing countries might relax supply restrictions after April.

Foreign exchange

The dollar rose on Wednesday, hitting a new high since February 8 to 91.05. Optimistic economic data and signs of increasing inflation helped push the dollar higher against a basket of currencies. The dollar index rose from the three-week low touched last Friday, rising 0.40% to 90.94 in late trading. The US retail sales, industrial production and producer price index (PPI) data released on Wednesday exceeded expectations. This shows that as vaccination progresses, the momentum for the economy to recover from the pandemic-induced recession is increasing.

Marc Chandler, the chief market strategist at Bannockburn Forex, said that today’s retail sales data is not only stronger than expected but far exceeding expectations. The same is valid for industrial production data. The dollar trend started yesterday, and what we see today is a continuation. Many people are still bearish on the dollar, but there is more room for this upward trend.

The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting on January 26-27. Participants stated that they need to “be vigilant” in the light of the recent economic rebound. They also discussed the expected rise in inflation and reiterated easing policies to support the ailing job market. Nothing is surprising about the meeting minutes.

Chandler said that in general, there is not much new information in the minutes of the Fed’s meeting, and the market is looking forward to the testimony of Fed Chairman Powell next week.

Despite the optimistic economic report, US Treasury yields reversed the recent upward momentum due to weakening selling pressure. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell back to 1.270% at the end of the session and was as high as 1.331% earlier in the session.

The euro fell 0.56% against the US dollar to 1.2038. The pound fell 0.33% against the dollar to 1.3857, after hitting its highest level since April 2018 on Tuesday.

During the Asian trading hours, the dollar-yen, which is sensitive to US yields, rose to 106.22, the highest since September last year, and fell back to 105.87 in late trading, down 0.16%.

In other currency pairs, the Australian dollar fell 0.09% to the US dollar to 0.7751; the New Zealand dollar fell 0.33% to 0.7191 against the US dollar; the US dollar rose 0.72% to the Swiss franc to 0.8989; the US dollar rose 0.09% to the Canadian dollar to 1.2702.

International news

[Minutes of the Federal Reserve Meeting: The conditions for reducing the intensity of QE cannot be met for “a time”] The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the January FOMC monetary policy meeting, stating that it may take some time for the US economy to make substantial progress. I am afraid that the conditions for reducing the intensity of asset purchases (QE) will not be met “for a while”. He is optimistic about inflation, but he is cautious about the labour market. Before adjusting the speed of asset purchases, it is essential to communicate with the public. The degree of improvement in the medium-term outlook has been sufficient for the Fed to adjust its views in its interest rate resolution statement.

[API report: U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 5.8 million barrels to 468 million barrels last week] As of the week of February 12, API gasoline inventories increased by 3.9 million barrels, refined oil inventories decreased by 3.5 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 3 million Barrels; US crude oil imports increased by 26,000 barrels per day last week.

[It is reported that crude oil production in the Permian Basin in the United States was frozen due to severe cold weather. Crude oil production in the Permian Basin fell by 80%, and US crude oil production fell by more than 40% or 4 million barrels per day.]

[Fed Rosengren: It is expected that inflation data will improve overtime this year. If inflation becomes a problem, the Fed will fix it. It is estimated that inflation cannot be maintained at around 2% in the next one or two years. There is indeed a “bubble” in some parts of the market, but people are less concerned about financial stability before the economy is close to full employment]

Ramsden said that the central bank has further room to expand its bond purchase program to stimulate the economy. This statement may indicate that prominent bank officials may be unwilling to Lower interest rates below zero. Ramsden said that the Bank of England might reassess some restrictions on the bank’s purchase of British government bonds in the financial market. He said that although the central bank does not rule out negative interest rates, quantitative easing is a “tested tool.” These remarks show that although the Bank of England expects that the new crown vaccine’s promotion can lead to a robust economic recovery, the central bank does not rule out the possibility of increasing stimulus measures.

Texas bans many natural gas companies from sending energy outside the state. Texas will extend its ban on foreign natural gas sales until February 21. Texas still has 19,800 megawatts (MW) of natural gas power capacity offline, and 17,200 MW of wind/solar (000591, share bar) power capacity is still offline.

[US SEC considers increasing short-sale transparency] The Wall Street Journal (blog, Weibo) quoted a source saying that the US Securities Exchange is considering whether to increase the transparency of short-sales and private lending to the soaring share price of Game Post. Eleven years ago, the authorities asked the SEC to implement such rules, but they never realised it. Now, in response to the stock trading frenzy caused by the game station incident, the US Securities and Exchange Commission is considering increasing the transparency of short-selling transactions within its scope of authority.

Domestic news

[Securities Daily front page: Five reasons for institutions to sing more A shares, the first week of the ox year may welcome a “good start” market] The industry generally believes that compared with the past Spring Festival market, the probability of the stock market rising after the holiday this year is higher. Most institutions said that the five reasons might help A shares usher in the first week of “good start.” First of all, the market has a higher probability of rising after the holiday. Secondly, the surrounding markets continue to “rising”. During the Chinese New Year holiday, the A-share market was boosted by economic recovery expectations, and “rising” became the keynote of major global markets. Third, commodity prices have hit new highs. Fourth, the RMB exchange rate’s appreciation has made RMB assets increasingly attractive to international capital, and foreign investors favour shares. Fifth, market funds are abundant. The inflexion point of liquidity tightening that some market participants worry about has not appeared. Industry insiders believe that, in the context of the upcoming launch of larger-scale economic stimulus plans in Europe and the United States, my country does not have the basis for immediate tightening of liquidity.

China Securities Regulatory Commission: Staunchly Opposes the Politicization of Securities Oversight and Strengthens Bilateral Cooperation

Recent congress action passed the “Foreign Company Accountability Act”, which requires foreign companies that do not meet their inspection requirements to report to the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB). The company made additional disclosure requirements if the accounting firm is unable to meet its financial targets for three consecutive years. The accountants were forbidden from trading theor securities.

On December 4, the head of the relevant department of the China Securities Regulatory Commission stated that the China Securities Regulatory Commission took note of this situation. Judging from the content of the bill’s additional disclosure requirements for foreign issuers, including proving they are not owned or controlled by foreign governments, disclosing the names of Communist Party officials on the board of directors and whether the Party Constitution is written into the company’s articles of association, are discriminatory.
Are not based on professional considerations of securities supervision, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission firmly opposes this practice of politicising securities supervision. Using these regulations to force Chinese companies to delist from the U.S. stock market will cause severe damage to the interests of American investors and even global investors.

The person in charge of the above-mentioned relevant departments stated that the US regulatory agency could not inspect Chinese accounting firms that provide audit services for Chinese companies listed in the US. This act is an issue of cross-border regulatory cooperation, which should be directed by strengthening bilateral regulatory collaboration. China has always maintained an open attitude towards resolving US concerns through dialogue and collaboration.

“We expect that the regulatory agencies of both sides will conduct consultations on specific plans based on:
1.the principle of mutual respect, resolve differences through dialogue.
2. and earnestly promote China-US audit regulatory cooperation.
3. jointly create a good regulatory environment for cross-border listed companies.”