The depreciation of the U.S. dollar, the future trend is unpredictable

This week the foreign exchange market, the dollar depreciation of the main events, a week quotes 93.9480 to 93.6180 point downstream point, the depreciation of 0.35%; 94.1785-93.4950 point amplitude between the highest and the lowest was 0.72%. As a result, other major currency followers have their characteristics. Among them, the appreciation of the pound sterling has helped the U.S. dollar significantly, and the exchange rate range has risen to 1.38 US dollars. The appreciation of the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar have strong coordination, with the Australian dollar reaching US$0.74 and the New Zealand dollar to US$0.72. Over the weekend, the yen only appreciated 113 yen, while the Canadian dollar remained high at 1.23 Canadian dollars. Only the euro remained stable at 1.16 US dollars, and the Swiss franc remained stable at 0.91 Swiss francs. Our RMB sudden appreciation and then topped 6,400 yuan mark, the two comparable level, opening the shore in partial derogatory 6.43 yuan, offshore partial rose 6.42 yuan but closed both 6.38 yuan, 6.3850 onshore partial banished from slightly below The shore is 6.3820 yuan.

The U.S. dollar dominates the current foreign exchange market. After all, the economic and policy influence of the U.S. dollar is more potent than that of all currencies, and the will of the U.S. dollar in the exchange rate game is still at the mercy of the market logic and guidance. The prospects deviate from the economy or are highly speculative or anxious—leading to cause and background.

1. The expected advancement of U.S. monetary policy is the focus of operational parameters. One week the Fed several officials of speech, including Bao Weier speech the President of the economy certainly favor or outbreaks soothing rhetoric and policy loosening is evident, then the market is expected to raise interest rates ahead of time is the key, actual debt reduction or step by step forward, then U.S. Treasury yields up protrude. Among them, the 10-year Treasury bond yield has risen to 1.7%, indicating that the Fed’s actions are intensive and the layout observation is positive. At this time, the devaluation of the U.S. dollar is the key. After all, it is the key to stabilizing the economy with interest rate hike expectations, and the devaluation of the U.S. dollar is significant to protect the economy. The old way of the U.S. dollar currency has always been concerned about and adjusted to the economy. Being proactive is the key to the current U.S. economic timeliness. Therefore, the Fed’s monetary policy is the key to benchmarking the economy, and it is also the focus of the actual results of actual measures. The primary and secondary logic of currency and economy is that currency protects the economy and is the focus of attention. Since President Biden came to power, he has always focused on the concerns and facts of the domestic economy. The U.S. economy has been prosperous so far. It is the market focus that has the background and the support of factors.

2. The actual profit and performance of the enterprise highlight the functional effect. The focus of the market this week is the financial reports of listed companies in the United States. The final result is that companies’ financial reports are positive or their earnings are more prominent than expected. At present, 84% of the financial reports that the market has seen are profits or exceed-expected profits, and even corporate profits have generally increased by 33.7%. As a result, U.S. stocks have soared. The Dow broke a record high of 35,765.02 points, and the S&P recorded a high of 4551.44 points. The three major stock indexes rose by 1.08, 1.29%, and 1.64% in the week, and even the aviation sector is a surprising profit model. The logic of listed companies in the United States is apparent. On the one hand, the government policies for corporate rescue are appropriate. The Federal Reserve’s debt purchases are to help companies have sufficient liquidity. Even if inflation is coming, corporate capital flow and cash flow smoothly support economic cycles or development needs, so the United States The profitability of the company remains undiminished. On the other hand, the U.S. employment index is unsuitable for applying for unemployment benefits or non-agricultural purposes. However, the unemployment rate in the United States has dropped significantly. The increase in the rate is related to the stability and quality of labor. This is a severe problem deliberately ignored by American public opinion and an essential basis for the dollar’s depreciation. However, the U.S. economy is not at the level of polarization of public opinion. The overall economy and the logic of reality require careful observation and comparison.

3. The multi-angle combination of complex factors in the international environment is prominent. The current market highlights the upward trend of international oil prices. New York oil futures prices have risen for nine consecutive weeks. This is the most extended weekly rise since April 1983, and this is also why the depreciation of the U.S. dollar is justified. After all, the financialization of oil has been integrated into the critical position of the U.S. dollar framework, and the controllability of U.S. oil has been quite beneficial. The rising oil will be the focus and combined support of many issues around the world. The current stimulus of rising oil is unavoidable, and the two significant areas of production and consumption with industrial characteristics will be unavoidable. Coupled with the more geopolitical nature of oil, poor international relations are inevitable for oil stimulus. It is also an important new element and new framework focus of U.S. foreign relations. In particular, the U.S. government announced on the weekend that the U.S. fiscal year deficit for 2021 was the second-highest in history. It was 2.77 trillion U.S. dollars, less than 3.13 trillion U.S. dollars in the previous year. The contradiction problem of the United States shows the power and credibility of the U.S. dollar and indicates the risks and pressures of the U.S. dollar. The two-sided logic is appropriately used by the skilled U.S. dollar and can be used with ease.

It is expected that the depreciation of the U.S. dollar next week will be the fermentation of concerns about the size of the U.S. fiscal deficit. Still, it is expected that the exchange rate will be challenging to implement, and the actual U.S. dollar may have to appreciate due to the depreciation of the significant basket currencies. After all, the appreciation of major currencies in the main basket increases economic and policy risks. Repairing the market will certainly not be conducive to the depreciation of the U.S. dollar. However, commodity resource prices may rise. The U.S. dollar has more than a handful of hands. The U.S. dollar’s ​​incredible combination of technologies, strategies, and policies requires comprehensive observation and response.

(Editor in charge: Wang Zhiqiang HF013)