Category Archives: Aluminium

the aluminium price is facing adjustment in the short term

Aluminium: The stocks have accumulated, the domestic gap is expected to decrease, and the aluminium price is facing adjustment in the short term
2020-12-07 07:14:23 Hexun Futures

Electrolytic aluminium new production continues, the recent expansion of imports of profits, customs inflows, as the Yunnan region in addition to the main production of the dry season, there may be a shortage of electricity supply in winter, resulting in production has slowed progress.

Demand remains resilient, and expectations are good. The State Council clearly pointed out that it will support the consumption of automobiles and green home appliances. In October, real estate, infrastructure, and automobile data were still good, demand for automobiles, photovoltaics, etc. performed well, and home appliances performed well; after the destocking stage continued, the inventory increased by 10,000 tons on Thursday, and the spot premium declined. The overall inventory evaluation is still bias With low inventory levels, it remains to be seen whether the inventory will continue to accumulate.

According to the balance sheet deduction, judging from the current performance of major aluminium downstream demand, aluminium consumption is still optimistically evaluated. Due to the expansion of spot import profits in November and the import profit on the far-month disk, it is expected that the inflow of import declarations will increase. The domestic gap has narrowed.

The aluminium price rose sharply during the stage. On Thursday, there was a signal of inventory accumulation. The crowded funds left the market and formed a stampede. This caused a sharp correction in aluminium prices. The domestic gap was expected to decline in the stage. It still needs to be released, demand can still be resilient, maintain the mid-term aluminium price volatility and strong operational judgment, and adjust the release risk in stages; follow-up pays close attention to inventory accumulation.

Strategic recommendations:

Trend: Long orders reduce holdings, and more can still be filled near the trend line support;

Inter-period: wait and see;

Cross-city: wait and see;

Focus on verification:

The inflow of imported aluminium;

Spot premiums and discounts;

Production and resumption of electrolytic aluminium;

Inventory changes;

Big purchase behavior;

risk warning:

Demand is less than expected;

Other macro risks;

One

3) The operating rate of aluminium sheet and strip in October was 69%, up 1.42% month-on-month, and down 3.63% year-on-year; the operating rate of aluminium foil was 84.7%

2.? Terminal consumption:

1) Real estate: Real estate investment and sales continued to rebound in October, and the completion of the project improved

2) Automobiles: production and sales have picked up. In October, automobile production was 2.552 million units, an increase of 11.2% year-on-year, and passenger car sales increased by 13.3% year-on-year

3). External demand: The price ratio is high and the profit of profile exports is low. In October, the export of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products was 418,900 tons, a decrease of 1.78% month-on-month and 2.58% year-on-year.

4) Power: From January to October, the total investment in power grid increased by -1.3% year-on-year; the investment in power source increased by 47.1% year-on-year

5) Home appliances: The growth rate of refrigerators is still strong, while air conditioners and colour TVs have fallen

three

Inventory and premium:

1. Inventory: Spot inventory has rebounded slightly, but the absolute level is still low

2. Monthly difference and premiums and discounts: spot premiums dropped slightly, and the monthly difference contracted slightly

four

Shanghai Aluminum Technology Chart: Upward in shock

Fives

Supply-demand balance sheet: after the increase in import profits and the increase in the expected import volume, the domestic gap will be reduced?

six

in conclusion

It appears that the new production of electrolytic aluminium continues, as well as the recent increase in import profits and the increase in customs declaration inflows. In addition, Yunnan, the main production location, may have insufficient power supply during the winter dry season, which has slowed the production progress.

Demand remains resilient, and expectations are good. The State Council clearly pointed out that it will support the consumption of automobiles and green home appliances. In October, real estate, infrastructure, and automobile data were still good, demand for automobiles, photovoltaics, etc. performed well, and home appliances performed well; after the destocking stage continued, the inventory increased by 10,000 tons on Thursday, and the spot premium fell. The overall inventory evaluation is still biased. With low inventory levels, it remains to be seen whether the inventory will continue to accumulate.

According to the balance sheet deduction, judging from the current performance of major aluminium downstream demand, aluminium consumption is still optimistically evaluated. Due to the expansion of spot import profits in November and the import profit on the far-month disk, it is expected that the inflow of import declarations will increase. The domestic gap has narrowed. ?

The aluminium price rose sharply during the stage. On Thursday, there was a signal of inventory accumulation. The crowded funds left the market and formed a stampede. This caused a sharp correction in aluminium prices. The domestic gap was expected to decline in the stage. It still needs to be released, demand can still be resilient, maintain the mid-term aluminium price volatility and strong operational judgment, and adjust the release risk in stages; follow-up pays close attention to inventory accumulation.

(Editor in charge: Chen Zhuang)