Category Archives: Markets

the aluminium price is facing adjustment in the short term

Aluminium: The stocks have accumulated, the domestic gap is expected to decrease, and the aluminium price is facing adjustment in the short term
2020-12-07 07:14:23 Hexun Futures

Electrolytic aluminium new production continues, the recent expansion of imports of profits, customs inflows, as the Yunnan region in addition to the main production of the dry season, there may be a shortage of electricity supply in winter, resulting in production has slowed progress.

Demand remains resilient, and expectations are good. The State Council clearly pointed out that it will support the consumption of automobiles and green home appliances. In October, real estate, infrastructure, and automobile data were still good, demand for automobiles, photovoltaics, etc. performed well, and home appliances performed well; after the destocking stage continued, the inventory increased by 10,000 tons on Thursday, and the spot premium declined. The overall inventory evaluation is still bias With low inventory levels, it remains to be seen whether the inventory will continue to accumulate.

According to the balance sheet deduction, judging from the current performance of major aluminium downstream demand, aluminium consumption is still optimistically evaluated. Due to the expansion of spot import profits in November and the import profit on the far-month disk, it is expected that the inflow of import declarations will increase. The domestic gap has narrowed.

The aluminium price rose sharply during the stage. On Thursday, there was a signal of inventory accumulation. The crowded funds left the market and formed a stampede. This caused a sharp correction in aluminium prices. The domestic gap was expected to decline in the stage. It still needs to be released, demand can still be resilient, maintain the mid-term aluminium price volatility and strong operational judgment, and adjust the release risk in stages; follow-up pays close attention to inventory accumulation.

Strategic recommendations:

Trend: Long orders reduce holdings, and more can still be filled near the trend line support;

Inter-period: wait and see;

Cross-city: wait and see;

Focus on verification:

The inflow of imported aluminium;

Spot premiums and discounts;

Production and resumption of electrolytic aluminium;

Inventory changes;

Big purchase behavior;

risk warning:

Demand is less than expected;

Other macro risks;

One

3) The operating rate of aluminium sheet and strip in October was 69%, up 1.42% month-on-month, and down 3.63% year-on-year; the operating rate of aluminium foil was 84.7%

2.? Terminal consumption:

1) Real estate: Real estate investment and sales continued to rebound in October, and the completion of the project improved

2) Automobiles: production and sales have picked up. In October, automobile production was 2.552 million units, an increase of 11.2% year-on-year, and passenger car sales increased by 13.3% year-on-year

3). External demand: The price ratio is high and the profit of profile exports is low. In October, the export of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products was 418,900 tons, a decrease of 1.78% month-on-month and 2.58% year-on-year.

4) Power: From January to October, the total investment in power grid increased by -1.3% year-on-year; the investment in power source increased by 47.1% year-on-year

5) Home appliances: The growth rate of refrigerators is still strong, while air conditioners and colour TVs have fallen

three

Inventory and premium:

1. Inventory: Spot inventory has rebounded slightly, but the absolute level is still low

2. Monthly difference and premiums and discounts: spot premiums dropped slightly, and the monthly difference contracted slightly

four

Shanghai Aluminum Technology Chart: Upward in shock

Fives

Supply-demand balance sheet: after the increase in import profits and the increase in the expected import volume, the domestic gap will be reduced?

six

in conclusion

It appears that the new production of electrolytic aluminium continues, as well as the recent increase in import profits and the increase in customs declaration inflows. In addition, Yunnan, the main production location, may have insufficient power supply during the winter dry season, which has slowed the production progress.

Demand remains resilient, and expectations are good. The State Council clearly pointed out that it will support the consumption of automobiles and green home appliances. In October, real estate, infrastructure, and automobile data were still good, demand for automobiles, photovoltaics, etc. performed well, and home appliances performed well; after the destocking stage continued, the inventory increased by 10,000 tons on Thursday, and the spot premium fell. The overall inventory evaluation is still biased. With low inventory levels, it remains to be seen whether the inventory will continue to accumulate.

According to the balance sheet deduction, judging from the current performance of major aluminium downstream demand, aluminium consumption is still optimistically evaluated. Due to the expansion of spot import profits in November and the import profit on the far-month disk, it is expected that the inflow of import declarations will increase. The domestic gap has narrowed. ?

The aluminium price rose sharply during the stage. On Thursday, there was a signal of inventory accumulation. The crowded funds left the market and formed a stampede. This caused a sharp correction in aluminium prices. The domestic gap was expected to decline in the stage. It still needs to be released, demand can still be resilient, maintain the mid-term aluminium price volatility and strong operational judgment, and adjust the release risk in stages; follow-up pays close attention to inventory accumulation.

(Editor in charge: Chen Zhuang)

After a decade-U.S. companies sell more shares than they are buying back.

For the first time in more than a decade! The U.S. Listed companies are selling more shares than they are buying back.

According to the Wall Street Journal, since the financial crisis in 2008, the bull market in the United States has been largely attributed to large-scale repurchases of listed companies. For every dollar of stock that was issued, bought back for $3. The repurchase amount decreased for the first time this year.

Active share repurchase by listed companies can boost stock market confidence one the one hand. On the other hand, it also reduces the number of shares outstanding in the market, which contributes to an increase in earnings per share year by year, even when incomes have not changed much.

Monetary easing policy supports gold prices, so the price of gold retreats over 1858 US$ area.

Monetary easing policy supports gold prices, so the price of gold retreats over 1858 US$ area.
2020-12-08 11:54:47 Hexun.com
  On Monday (December 7), gold fell to US$ 1822 and then rapidly climbed higher. Gold prices again reached a high level of US$1850, reaching a maximum of US$1868.5, an increase of 1.19%. Although the British decided not to continue the negotiations with the European Union, risk sentiment weighed on the market. Still, both Britain and the European Union have reiterated that the talks will proceed. According to the expectations of the market for the US dollar stimulus package, the decline in the stock market and worsening epidemic, and the expectation of the European Central Bank to expand its easing measures have all contributed to the sharp rise of the price of gold.

  The US$ 908 billion rescue plan developed by congressmen has received the support of Pelosi and Schumer as well as the senators, who are ready to engage in negotiations on the rescue plan on this basis. At the same time, lawmakers are also arguing about the $1.4 trillion comprehensive spending bill, which funds government operations. The bailout bill may be linked to the comprehensive spending bill.

  There is one bill in the state legislatures that will expire on the 11th of December to fund government operations. To avoid a government shutdown, the House of Representatives plans to vote on a one-week short-term spending bill on Wednesday.

  Representatives of the two political parties in the United States intend to present more details of the US$908 billion pandemic relief plan on Monday, aiming to reach consensus on measures for the aid program to be passed before Congress adjourns. Although progress has been made in aid package negotiations, McConnell has not compromised on the bailout bill.

  ④18:00 ZEW Economic Sentiment Index of Germany and Euro Zone in December

  ⑤19:00 US November NFIB Small Business Confidence Index

  ⑥ EIA announces monthly short-term energy outlook report at 01:00 the next day

  ⑦ 05:30 the next day API crude oil inventory from the United States to the week of December 4

  (Disclaimer: The above analysis only represents the author’s personal opinion and does not constitute a specific operation. According to this operation, the profit and loss are at your own risk, investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)

(Editor in charge: Zhang Yajie HF083)

gold prices have seen profit-taking before the key technical level of $1850

The price of gold decreased on Friday when investors took profits after the previous trading day’s rally. However, Speculations on new US stimulus measures made gold more attractive as an inflation hedge, and the price of gold rose for the first time in four weeks.e

  At the time closing of the US market, spot gold closed at US$1838.51 per ounce, down US$1.99 or 0.09%. The highest intraday hit US$1848.09 per ounce and the lowest hit US$1830.09 per ounce.

Gold prices have seen profit-taking after four consecutive days of a strong rebound. This level is seen as a major obstacle because it has been a support level for the past two months: Montreal Said Tai Wong, director of bank fundamentals and precious metal derivatives trading.

  ”Gold’s response to the apparently weak U.S. non-farm payroll report is a sell-off rather than a rise, suggesting that bargain-hunting buyers may be temporarily satisfied,” he added, adding that there may be some mild but stable “planned sell-offs in ETF “.
The November non-agricultural employment growth in the United States was the lowest in six months, which is likely to boost expectations of fiscal stimulus. After the release of non-agricultural data, gold rose to a high, but then fell in shock.

  The latest U.S. non-agricultural employment report shows that the U.S. non-agricultural employment-population increased by only 245,000 in November, far below the expected increase of 469,000; the unemployment rate in November fell to 6.7%, the expected 6.8%, and the previous value of 6.9%.

 

Kitco Gold Survey: the price of gold may hit the $1,900 mark next week

Kitco Gold Survey: A dramatic change! The bulls come out next week, the price of gold may hit the $1,900 mark
10:08:01 2020-12-05 FX168
  According to the results of the Golden Week survey released by Kitco News on Friday (December 4), as the sentiment of Wall Street analysts and Wall Street investors has changed significantly, the gold market may rise further in the short term.

  The gold bulls seem to be making a big move again, as the precious metal experienced a strong reversal in the first few trading days of December. The gold market rebounded from a four-month low on Monday and hit its highest level in a week.

  Darin Newsom, president of Darin Newsom Analysis, said, “After the gold price rebounded from the key support level of $1767, we saw a strong reversal in the price of gold. From a technical point of view, short-term trends indicate that the price of gold will rise slightly next week.”

  This week, 14 professional analysts participated in the survey. A total of 10 analysts (71%) expect the price of gold to rise next week; at the same time, one analyst (7%) expects the price of gold to fall; three analysts (21%) hold a neutral view on gold.

  Meanwhile, in the survey that was conducted online a week ago, a total of 1,147 votes was received. Among these 743 respondents, 65% (or 742 people) said that they were optimistic about the gold’s performance in the upcoming week. Another 231 respondents (20%) said they were bearish, and 173 respondents (15%) were neutral on gold.

 The market sentiment has changed dramatically from last week. At the beginning of the week, most analyst’s had a negative attitude towards gold, and retail investors’ confidence level was at a multi-year low at the time. The gold price is expected to rise by 3-5% this week.

  Most analysts have pointed out that gold prices have rebounded from a 4-month low hit earlier this year in November, creating strong technical bullish momentum for the market.

  

good news The stimulus talks have gotten underway

Decision Analysis: Another good news! The stimulus talks have gotten underway, and today’s non-agricultural heavy attack gold technical side warns
15:21:35 2020-12-04 FX168
FX168 Financial News (Hong Kong) News Friday (December 4), Asian stock markets set a record high on Friday after the hope of the US stimulus plan passing through the Congress. Apparently, the market hopes for it to pass soon.

As of the close, the Australian ASX200 index closed up 0.28%; the Nikkei 225 index closed down 0.22%; South Korea KOSPI index closed up 1.31 per cent. Shares rose across the board.

Although yesterday’s news of Pfizer’s vaccine dragged down US stocks in late trading, the current market focus seems to be shifting to a new round of US stimulus plans.

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Shares finished mostly higher on Wednesday as information technology rebounded.
The Dow underperformed the broader U.S. stock market on Wednesday, as tech shares propelled the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to higher ground.

The major indices diverged at the close, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) dipped 23.29 points, or 0.1%, to 29,397.63.

A surging tech sector propelled the Nasdaq Composite Index (QQQ) sharply higher. The Nasdaq closed up 2% at 11,786.43.

Meanwhile, the broad S&P 500 Index (SPY) of large-cap stocks gained 0.8% to close at 3,572.66. In addition to big tech, shares of consumer discretionary, consumer staples and communication services also rose sharply. On the opposite side of the ledger, energy, industrials, materials and financials declined.

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crude oil retracement to 67.8

Yesterday, it went down once and finished high. The position of 68-68.1 was more than once, rose to 68.7, and finally, it fell to around 67.6. There was not much fluctuation and market, and the general direction was still bullish. Change, as long as 67 has not broken, then the idea of ​more operations will not change, today after the callback in the 67.8 position involved more than one single, continue to look up to the high point of rebound can b 69.